Alain Préat
Panique sur les réserves de pétrole ?
Reference 2 Version 1 Date 04/10/2012
Article
Introduction
Understanding global oil supply is complicated by opposing positions taken recently by major oil companies on the issue of ‘peak oil’. Oil is a finite resource, and contrary to what is generally thought, it is incredibly large and the oil peak will not occur in the next years. They are numerous sources that report hydrocarbon consumption, production and project energy needs. These include, to name but three, the following : (1) the International Energy Agency (IEA) that was established within the OECD ; (2) the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy and (3) the US Geological Survey (USGS) that is part of the US Department of Interior. These three sources are clear that the quantities of fossil fuels are not known precisely but their order of magnitude is circumscribed. Ominous graphs are published on oil reserves versus time, and the peak is anywhere from 2004 to 2030. The academic geologists point to a much narrower band of dates for the maximum oil delivery, and come up with dates between 2010 and 2020, with some saying we have already passed the peak. The peak oil production or ‘Hubbert’s peak’ marks the beginning of the end that is the point when production can no longer keep up with demand. There is also a broad range of choices in the new sources of energy related to subconventional and unconventional hydrocarbon sources (oil and gas). They have huge resources and with the present day high barrel price they start to be expanded rapidly. These new resources will differ the oil production values but the date of the ‘final’ peak is unknown. We do not know where our energy will come from after 2050 but for now and until 2030, and probably to 2050, 80 % of the world energy will be derived from fossil fuels as today. The world’s energy mix will probably shift to the point (by 2015?) where we will be less dependent on oil and more dependent on natural gas and coal. To continue the hydrocarbon economy requires attention to be given to both improved recovery and the exploitation of unconventional resources. Changes in the world of energy are measured not in months, not in years, but often in decades.
Authors
Alain Préat
Né à Mitwaba (ex-Congo belge), en 1951. Docteur en sciences géologiques et Professeur à l'Université libre de Bruxelles. Sa spécialité est l'analyse des bassins sédimentaires du Précambrien au Mésozoïque.Entretien (Lettre d'information n° 55, novembre 2012) (n° 55, novembre 2012)
 
Categories
Development economics
Geology
Petroleum industry
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Panique sur les réserves de pétrole ?